2026 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Limited confidence

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Texas

51.1%Win probability51.1%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginTexas by 0.5Model error range: ±17.0 points

Notre Dame

48.9%Win probability48.9%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 157 current-season games with 2,398 games from 2025, 2024, 2023. Current-season influence is 50% for the rating relationship, 14% for home-field advantage, and 24% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.