2020 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Alabama

67.4%Win probability67.4%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginAlabama by 7.6Model error range: ±16.8 points

BYU

32.6%Win probability32.6%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 534 current-season games with 2,322 games from 2019, 2018, 2017. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 35% for home-field advantage, and 52% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.