2025 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Indiana

81.0%Win probability81.0%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginIndiana by 14.2Model error range: ±16.2 points

Oregon

19.0%Win probability19.0%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 808 current-season games with 2,366 games from 2024, 2023, 2022. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 45% for home-field advantage, and 62% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.