2024 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Ohio State

58.0%Win probability58.0%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginOhio State by 3.3Model error range: ±16.4 points

Notre Dame

42.0%Win probability42.0%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 798 current-season games with 2,338 games from 2023, 2022, 2021. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 44% for home-field advantage, and 61% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.