2021 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Georgia

66.5%Win probability66.5%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginGeorgia by 7.1Model error range: ±16.6 points

Alabama

33.5%Win probability33.5%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 770 current-season games with 2,080 games from 2020, 2019, 2018. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 44% for home-field advantage, and 61% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.