2018 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Clemson

58.9%Win probability58.9%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginClemson by 3.8Model error range: ±17.1 points

Alabama

41.1%Win probability41.1%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 772 current-season games with 2,301 games from 2017, 2016, 2015. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 44% for home-field advantage, and 61% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.