2016 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Alabama

69.0%Win probability69.0%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginAlabama by 8.4Model error range: ±17.0 points

Clemson

31.0%Win probability31.0%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 760 current-season games with 2,262 games from 2015, 2014, 2013. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 43% for home-field advantage, and 60% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.