2014 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Ohio State

66.5%Win probability66.5%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginOhio State by 7.0Model error range: ±16.4 points

Oregon

33.5%Win probability33.5%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 760 current-season games with 2,184 games from 2013, 2012, 2011. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 43% for home-field advantage, and 60% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.