2013 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Florida State

88.2%Win probability88.2%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginFlorida State by 19.4Model error range: ±16.4 points

Michigan State

11.8%Win probability11.8%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 737 current-season games with 2,165 games from 2012, 2011, 2010. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 42% for home-field advantage, and 60% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.