2012 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Alabama

60.3%Win probability60.3%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginAlabama by 4.2Model error range: ±16.2 points

Oregon

39.7%Win probability39.7%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 732 current-season games with 2,147 games from 2011, 2010, 2009. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 42% for home-field advantage, and 59% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.