2010 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Auburn

58.6%Win probability58.6%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginAuburn by 3.5Model error range: ±16.4 points

Oregon

41.4%Win probability41.4%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 718 current-season games with 2,143 games from 2009, 2008, 2007. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 42% for home-field advantage, and 59% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.