2009 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Alabama

64.4%Win probability64.4%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginAlabama by 5.9Model error range: ±15.9 points

Texas

35.6%Win probability35.6%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 714 current-season games with 2,143 games from 2008, 2007, 2006. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 42% for home-field advantage, and 59% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.