2004 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

USC

59.6%Win probability59.6%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginUSC by 4.1Model error range: ±16.9 points

Auburn

40.4%Win probability40.4%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 663 current-season games with 2,058 games from 2003, 2002, 2001. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 40% for home-field advantage, and 57% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.