1994 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Penn State

56.7%Win probability56.7%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginPenn State by 2.8Model error range: ±16.4 points

Nebraska

43.3%Win probability43.3%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 593 current-season games with 1,759 games from 1993, 1992, 1991. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 37% for home-field advantage, and 54% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.