1986 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Penn State

50.5%Win probability50.5%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginPenn State by 0.2Model error range: ±15.4 points

Miami

49.5%Win probability49.5%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 563 current-season games with 1,668 games from 1985, 1984, 1983. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 36% for home-field advantage, and 53% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.