1982 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Penn State

52.2%Win probability52.2%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginPenn State by 0.9Model error range: ±16.2 points

Nebraska

47.8%Win probability47.8%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 537 current-season games with 2,156 games from 1981, 1980, 1979. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 35% for home-field advantage, and 52% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.