1981 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Penn State

62.3%Win probability62.3%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginPenn State by 5.2Model error range: ±16.5 points

Clemson

37.7%Win probability37.7%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 719 current-season games with 2,152 games from 1980, 1979, 1978. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 42% for home-field advantage, and 59% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.