1974 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Oklahoma

71.0%Win probability71.0%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginOklahoma by 9.2Model error range: ±16.6 points

Alabama

29.0%Win probability29.0%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 663 current-season games with 1,923 games from 1973, 1972, 1971. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 40% for home-field advantage, and 57% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.