1969 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Penn State

60.0%Win probability60.0%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginPenn State by 4.2Model error range: ±16.4 points

Houston

40.0%Win probability40.0%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 567 current-season games with 1,630 games from 1968, 1967, 1966. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 36% for home-field advantage, and 53% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.