1965 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Michigan State

63.1%Win probability63.1%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginMichigan State by 4.9Model error range: ±14.8 points

Notre Dame

36.9%Win probability36.9%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 545 current-season games with 1,629 games from 1964, 1963, 1962. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 35% for home-field advantage, and 52% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.