1964 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Alabama

60.2%Win probability60.2%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginAlabama by 3.8Model error range: ±14.7 points

Notre Dame

39.8%Win probability39.8%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 542 current-season games with 1,615 games from 1963, 1962, 1961. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 35% for home-field advantage, and 52% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.