Modern Statistical Era. World War II season; schedules, rosters, and participation were affected by wartime conditions.

1943 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Notre Dame

91.6%Win probability91.6%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginNotre Dame by 21.9Model error range: ±15.9 points

Michigan

8.4%Win probability8.4%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 254 current-season games with 1,284 games from 1942, 1941, 1940. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 20% for home-field advantage, and 34% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.