1940 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Michigan

51.2%Win probability51.2%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginMichigan by 0.4Model error range: ±13.3 points

Stanford

48.8%Win probability48.8%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 453 current-season games with 1,305 games from 1939, 1938, 1937. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 31% for home-field advantage, and 48% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.