1938 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Tennessee

57.8%Win probability57.8%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginTennessee by 2.6Model error range: ±13.4 points

TCU

42.2%Win probability42.2%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 427 current-season games with 1,346 games from 1937, 1936, 1935. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 30% for home-field advantage, and 46% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.