Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1934 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Alabama

51.9%Win probability51.9%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginAlabama by 0.6Model error range: ±12.9 points

Minnesota

48.1%Win probability48.1%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 442 current-season games with 1,248 games from 1933, 1932, 1931. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 31% for home-field advantage, and 47% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.