Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1931 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

USC

83.5%Win probability83.5%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginUSC by 14.8Model error range: ±15.3 points

Tulane

16.5%Win probability16.5%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 398 current-season games with 1,087 games from 1930, 1929, 1928. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 28% for home-field advantage, and 44% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.