Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1930 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Notre Dame

55.7%Win probability55.7%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginNotre Dame by 2.3Model error range: ±15.8 points

Alabama

44.3%Win probability44.3%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 389 current-season games with 1,031 games from 1929, 1928, 1927. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 28% for home-field advantage, and 44% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.