Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1929 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

USC

60.3%Win probability60.3%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginUSC by 4.0Model error range: ±15.3 points

Notre Dame

39.7%Win probability39.7%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 353 current-season games with 978 games from 1928, 1927, 1926. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 26% for home-field advantage, and 41% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.