Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1926 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Michigan

55.6%Win probability55.6%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginMichigan by 2.0Model error range: ±14.5 points

Navy

44.4%Win probability44.4%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 300 current-season games with 996 games from 1925, 1924, 1923. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 23% for home-field advantage, and 38% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.