Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1925 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Alabama

59.0%Win probability59.0%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginAlabama by 3.4Model error range: ±15.1 points

Michigan

41.0%Win probability41.0%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 323 current-season games with 1,015 games from 1924, 1923, 1922. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 24% for home-field advantage, and 39% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.