Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1924 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Notre Dame

59.2%Win probability59.2%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginNotre Dame by 3.6Model error range: ±15.4 points

Alabama

40.8%Win probability40.8%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 346 current-season games with 977 games from 1923, 1922, 1921. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 26% for home-field advantage, and 41% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.