Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1923 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Yale

74.8%Win probability74.8%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginYale by 10.7Model error range: ±16.1 points

Illinois

25.2%Win probability25.2%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 327 current-season games with 945 games from 1922, 1921, 1920. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 25% for home-field advantage, and 40% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.