Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1922 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

California

63.6%Win probability63.6%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginCalifornia by 5.7Model error range: ±16.3 points

Centre

36.4%Win probability36.4%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 342 current-season games with 883 games from 1921, 1920, 1919. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 25% for home-field advantage, and 41% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.