Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1914 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Texas

62.3%Win probability62.3%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginTexas by 5.9Model error range: ±18.7 points

Illinois

37.7%Win probability37.7%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 242 current-season games with 628 games from 1913, 1912, 1911. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 19% for home-field advantage, and 33% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.