Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1912 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Harvard

57.5%Win probability57.5%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginHarvard by 3.0Model error range: ±15.8 points

Wisconsin

42.5%Win probability42.5%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 210 current-season games with 591 games from 1911, 1910, 1909. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 17% for home-field advantage, and 30% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.