Early Modern Era. Early Modern Era; calculated independently but excluded from default cross-season statistics.

1909 current-season model

Matchup Predictor

Choose a matchup

Established

Team A

Team B

Venue

Team A spread

Use sportsbook notation: −7.5 means Team A is favored by 7.5; +7.5 means Team A is the underdog.

Yale

54.8%Win probability54.8%Cover probability (0.0)

Expected marginYale by 1.8Model error range: ±15.2 points

Virginia Tech

45.2%Win probability45.2%Cover probability (0.0)

How it works This FBS-specific model blends 195 current-season games with 607 games from 1908, 1907, 1906. Current-season influence is 100% for the rating relationship, 16% for home-field advantage, and 28% for the error range. Before week-eight recalibration, probabilities are limited to 5–95% to reflect early-season uncertainty.