How ratings perform on the field
Game Trends
Win rate by rating advantage
Pregame rating gapUnder 105,343 games · 0.8 avg. margin
52.9%
10–24.997,776 games · 3.4 avg. margin
58.2%
25–49.9911,543 games · 6.8 avg. margin
66.5%
50–99.9916,133 games · 12.9 avg. margin
79.7%
100+10,456 games · 22.3 avg. margin
91.5%
Favorite location
Home, road, and neutral| Situation | Games | Favorite win % | Avg. margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorite | 26,076 | 81.2% | 14.9 |
| Road favorite | 23,293 | 65.0% | 6.6 |
| Neutral-site favorite | 1,882 | 61.3% | 4.4 |
Results by decade
Is the system becoming more predictive?| Decade | Games | Higher-rated wins | Upsets | Home win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s | 4,231 | 71.0% | 29.0% | 58.0% |
| 2010s | 7,093 | 73.1% | 26.9% | 57.7% |
| 2000s | 6,650 | 72.3% | 27.7% | 60.0% |
| 1990s | 5,916 | 73.8% | 26.2% | 60.5% |
| 1980s | 5,682 | 73.2% | 26.8% | 59.8% |
| 1970s | 6,471 | 72.9% | 27.1% | 59.9% |
| 1960s | 5,217 | 72.9% | 27.1% | 59.5% |
| 1950s | 4,786 | 72.4% | 27.6% | 58.8% |
| 1940s | 4,015 | 76.0% | 24.0% | 60.1% |
| 1930s | 1,201 | 74.7% | 25.3% | 60.2% |
Game Trends defaults to the Modern Statistical Era beginning in 1937. Each comparison uses the teams’ overall ratings from the week before the game. Week 1 is excluded because no prior weekly rating exists. Tied games are excluded, and games where both teams had exactly the same rating are omitted from higher-rated win percentages. Division views include games where both teams belonged to that division.